Ok picture and title, terrible joke but really that’s all we’ve been doing – churning… Notice how quick the market rallies right back up to near the highs, pulls back and rallies right back up? Well, today was the end of the quarter so i guess we’ll see how it pans out. I can only assume the big money is now positioning for earnings and the Friday Jobs report which is everywhere in the media right now.
Anyway here are a few charts, first up the June emini futures contract for the last 20 days over a 1 hour time frame. The dotted lines show the support and resistance levels i am watching. There really isn’t much to do in between unless you are intraday scalping.
Here is the same contract over a much longer time frame – the volume profile isn’t entirely accurate here as it is the amalgamation of years of other contracts and the granularity of the data is cruder ..but it all depends on how you want to use it. For my purposes, it is fine.
Clear, distinct, easy to see rising trend line, look at the region in correlation with the low volume below, If we start getting weak, watch how the tape acts, the market has a tendency to overshoot to shake out as many people as possible, it’ll rarely stop on a dime or ‘line’ as it were but areas of confluence are a good place to stand if you believe in your hypothesis.
My take right now is i think we’re in a holding pattern until earnings, makes sense really unless more geopolitical stuff comes out of left field.
I keep playing this one, i think it has legs but we’ll see. Looks like some movement in the currency markets may of kickstarted it. Huge volume on that spike at the bottom recently also tells me there are some big players involved here. The stock has been taken to the cleaners and i fancy it’s chances at climbing up. Currently looking at around 17-20$ with some resistance around that $14-$15 gap, no timeframe. This stock could easily rollback over given the fundamentals BUT..i think if you are looking at a year or two horizon, then it maybe worth a shot. All part of the fun playing the market right?
In a holding pattern into earnings, i think one is going to move pretty well once it breaks out of this consolidation range – still building energy. The book value is still out of whack with the stock price, just need to be patient. I’m accumulating for the long haul ( 10 yrs + ) on any pullbacks, no rush.
No not the green stuff, the Ag company Potash – having a great little move off the bottom, running into a low volume resistance zone – great pattern, i love those capitulations and basing moves…they take time but plenty of opportunity to partake and ride it up. If it pops through the zone around this 36$ish area then i think 45-47$ or so is on the cards. Looking at all the media catalysts with food prices, drought etc, i think it’s got a shot. It got absolutely crushed with the potash cartel kerfuffle last year. Solid stock with a decent yield, i’m buying again if it rolls over.
Final one for today, FXY ETF MONTHLY chart.
This shows the massive scale of the decline in the yen versus the dollar, now you can clearly see why the Japanese stock market is tearing up…looks like it is pausing, not totally clear how much of a bounce is coming, if any but you can see in the bottom left the low from 2007, it wouldn’t surprise me if it did get there. Just thought it was interesting.
Image courtesy of Simon Howden / FreeDigitalPhotos.net