Markets are open, pretty quiet right now with a small fluctuation around the 1833.50 level. Posted a chart below of the /ES ( ES_F ) March emini futures contract. We’re definitely getting to some interesting levels.
From the high at 1887.5 to around the 1821 level which is 66.5 points or 3.5% approximately.
As you can see from the chart, there is a significant support level that has been tested once right in this 1810-1820 zone. There maybe another test but on several other metrics, we’re pretty oversold for the things i use. To back this up, several stocks i like are also hitting interesting levels. I’ll probably take a position on further weakness subject to broad market action.
Now if the market decides to break this level, it would seem to me that we’d probably rip down to the next major support and retest somewhere in the 1730 – 1750 levels, looking for a higher low. Nobody knows when the big money will step in. The geopolitical situation with Russia and the Chinese economic data is on the frontpage everywhere, however, opinions aside and trading pure technicals, this is just noise especially if you have a long-term horizon on stocks. As i trade short-term, i like to try and gauge where i’d like to take a position and ride some leveraged plays.
We’re in crystal ball territory. I have no idea what the market will do tomorrow or this time next week but i do like the probability that there will be some kind of significant bounce coming soon. However, let’s take one day at a time.
Below is a chart of AIG which i like for short-term and long-term. The white line is the 200ma on the stock. Wouldn’t life be easy if everything just bounced beautifully exactly as planned? Well, it rarely happens so i wouldn’t be surprised that it bounced here or it overshot a bit to flush out some weak longs, perhaps to the next low volume node around $47.5 – $47.6 and then started it’s next leg up. The book value of the stock is compelling, it’s a slow churner but it can be played several ways.
Of course if the major S&P level is broken then all bets are off and we could drop a few bucks more.
Expecting churn in the tape between the 1730-1880 range for a bit until the next catalyst arrives.
Beyond the Tape
One thing i have noticed when i have been shopping are the number of vendors who are not taking mastercard ( maybe visa, i don’t have one ) or making pretty significant grumblings on the fees being charged. This is especially prevalent in small businesses, not sure how this plays out but just an observation.
Also, how slow are the darn terminals when they are processing the transactions these days? In an ideal world, it should be almost instance right? Ok it’s only 10-20 seconds but it feels like an eternity sometime. I would like to think there would be a major player stepping in to ruffle a few feathers in this sector at some point. Everyone hates queues, first world problems i know.
Image courtesy of dan / FreeDigitalPhotos.net