Well, to me at least, the tape seems to be showing some signs of taking a breather although we may have a few last gasps and pushes into end of quarter before a potential pullback.
I’ve put up a few charts below but right now i see support around the 1860 level, you can see on all the charts that the market has run up into the heady heights, the trend is firmly intact but we are about 1 deviation from the norm on the weekly – in my view, it will either churn sideways or it will back and fill down…maybe 1860? maybe 1840? maybe 1800? Who knows…
All i do know is that i think there is a low probability of it running up another 40-50 points in a short space of time so i don’t think it is time to get really aggressive here
Anyway here is a Weekly of the /ES Mini March Futures Contract
Below is the daily of the /ES Mini March Futures Contract.
This one is a little more interesting, you can see the high volume node forming around this new balance zone at 1860-1870, all the lines are pointing up, you can see just how far the tape has pulled away from the 200ma at the bottom. Strong like bull right? It would seem pretty clear where to watch from this. I’m sitting on my hands right now and waiting for a better opportunity.
Final chart for all the aapl-holics out there, this is a weekly chart. The stock is just churning waiting for a catalyst. You can see where the sellers are stepping in with that trend line moving down which is around this $530-540$ area. The bottom hashed line is a gap, a low volume node and possible confluence of a rising 200ma around the 460-470$. If we get down there for whatever reason, i will likely take another position in the stock. Again, for me context is everything, need to vet against the rest of the market at the time. I’m waiting for news and seeing how people are positioning ahead of apple media events. Last year, the stock was weak for the first half of the year and then had a crazy ramp in 2H. It maybe a repeat but will take it one day at a time.
On a side note, i was having dinner with a friend who worked at Microsoft the other day, he doesn’t do much investing at all but he said to me that he thought Microsoft made more revenue than Apple so where better than to check the stats than look at the nasdaq site.
In 2013, Microsoft revenue was $78 billion and the eps was $2.58, the forward P/E of 13.04. Pretty darn impressive. We then went to Apple, the revenue was $171 billion, eps was $44.15 and the stock is trading at a Forward P/E around 11.47 which is absolutely insane. There are other metrics which aren’t so impressively different and in some cases Apple is weaker than Microsoft – maybe these are why the stock seems to have a hard time gaining traction right now.
Either way, the perception about the stock metrics is interesting.
Also keep an eye on the Asian markets, i’m watching the FXI, clearly showing weakness and approaching a major support line. Getting to some intriguing levels, here is an interesting link at the Daily Telegraph.
Image courtesy of Maggie Smith / FreeDigitalPhotos.net