Today was a powerful up move but i am starting to see some interesting divergences appear.
I am still sticking to the plan that i described a few days back that i’m looking for push over 1900 and some ‘attempt’ at 2000 ( read that as some move to 1950-2000 or maybe more )….it’s such a hard call because on several charts, we’re pretty stretched by all accounts. Something will give, it always does.
3 weeks left to the end of the quarter so i’m starting to adjust things as we get closer and probably going to hedge more aggressively before the quarter is out.
Anyway in the short-term, i am looking for a sideways churn here after such a big move…
Here is a quick view of the March daily futures contract at close today, the highlighted region is the 1840 level where we broke out from, if we get back under there, we could have some significant downside. Just watching how the tape behaves now relative to this massive bar formed today. If you think this is an inverted head and shoulders then the measured move would be about 120 points or so, this gives a target roughly around the 1960-1970 level.
Below is a quick snapshot of Apple, in no man’s land, the bollingers are starting to tighten which is telling me that a move is brewing to break out of it’s current range ( up or down )…the fact that it hardly budged today on such a big move is a bit of a concern but we’ll see how it goes. I’m just going to keep some powder dry, no point trying to jump on it until it moves..
On other news, the VOD payment ( cash ) should be through shortly. I am going to sit on that until i see some better opportunities.
Josh Brown posted a great article on nonsense forecasts – absolutely true, all the above i mention is just homework, guesswork, experience and ‘gut-feel’ – at the end of the day, it is all down to probabilities and plenty of unknowns, anyone tells you otherwise is not telling the truth.
You just gotta make sure your winners are bigger than your losers 😉
What are you thinking? How are you feeling about the market in its current state? Bullish? Bearish?
Image courtesy of Stuart Miles / FreeDigitalPhotos.net