I haven’t got any screen caps with me tonight but i have scanned over the indexes briefly. I do like to ‘pretend’ to see where the tape will go next. There is no crystal ball, just some intuition and guesswork at this stage.
So this post is just going to cover 2 points briefly.
First up, AIG, i really like the way this stock is acting and i have shares which i intend to hold for a long time ahead ( 10 years at least). I love the fact the payout ratio is still really low and they’re just now starting to get over the hump of expenses, there is still a bunch of work to do but the price action, the fact it is only 7-8x PE right now and book value in the 60s, the potential for the dividend to keep going up nicely all leads me to being comfortable with it.
To be honest, i’d love it if the stock sold off hard and went on sale big time -anything in the 30s would be a steal all else being equal.
I also did short-term trading with calls from 46 and exited at the gap around 50.34 for a nice profit. I’m going to feed a good chunk of that back into my long-term dividend stocks, the remainder back into the kitty for speculative trades.
Second, with the market in general, I’m still expecting chop (1820-1846) for the the rest of this week into options expiration.
On the /ES mini futures today, we hit right into the resistance zone i mentioned last week and we shall see what will happen next.
One thing i am mulling over is that we could be in the midst of making a large inverted head and shoulder pattern of sorts on the daily. The left side was built up over january over 2-3 weeks, the right side looks like it could be starting to form now. I’ll post up a screen on this tomorrow.
Again, this is all moot as nothing is confirmed but the price action is bullish. >IF< the pattern turns out to be valid, there looks be something in the region of approximately 120 s&p points built in from this which would take us to around 1970-1980... And funnily enough that's about the equivalent move down when we sold off end of jan to 1720-1730...market tested below, now it tests up in some form of balance..... And just for fun....bottom of the crash at 666 x 3 = 1998, we'd be a hair from 2000, the market loves multiples. Interesting.. I'm noticing some large caps that i watch are starting to line up a bit i.e. some that ran ahead are now chilling, the laggards are starting to catch up. For me, this is usually a precursor to some kind of broad-based move in the making. I watched Paul Tudor Jones' video 'Trader' again the other day, there is one point about half way through where he is positioning for a move and the camera focuses on a copy of the new york times on his desk with headlines echoing what is happening now, i.e. sentiment is bad, government massively in debt but the market still wants to go higher. Exuberance is not in the market yet. This was several months before the '87 crash so take from that what you will. i'll post up some dividend stocks that i like soon.