The market has sold off fairly quickly and that has spooked a few people, some key technicals have broken down in various charts, it feels a lot more than what it actually is ( around 6-7% from the areas i use ) – i am working from the 1846 high last year but a lot of people are working from the open this year, each to their own.
Lots of interesting confluence coming up, i am currently anticipating one further surge down into the 1700 and just below, after that – who knows but some stocks are looking like they are making a stand here and there. All i can go off are the technicals and the fact that earnings have not been that bad. I guess this is just more of the normalization process occurring as the fed pulls out.
I am chipping away at positions that i like for the long haul, hedge where i can and buy into really oversold speculative positions that i fancy for the short-term.
Looks like the next catalyst will be the non-farm payrolls on friday, i believe the wildcard will be the impact of the weather and how that is interpreted, all i can say is that this is the longest stretch of cold i have been in for a long time and i am up in the pacific northwest…definitely feeling the arctic chill.
Watching the 10 year and that 3% level that everyone keeps banging on about, watching currencies as there are lots of wild swings which impact everything.
I think the emerging market stuff is a bit over-cooked personally and just buying undervalued ( but risky ) assets like PBR, ELP and SFTBY ( nice 6-7% bounce today off the 200ma ).
As for last weeks earnings, Google did great again and is turning into what i think will be the first 1 trillion$ market cap stock in several years from now but the competition for cloud services is just starting and AMZN and other players are in big time. Will be interesting to see how the good ship MSFT navigates the waters alongside these other goliaths especially with Gates taking a fairly active role.
Futures are currently down around 7pm PST expecting chop for the next 2-3 days till the NFP.
I’ll post some charts up soon along with ideas on earning plays and some links to various articles that i found interesting.